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Can Ford's Truck and SUV Strength Drive Q3 Earnings Growth?
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Key Takeaways
Ford's U.S. sales fell 6.6%, but core-model sales were flat as retail share rose 0.4 points to 12.1%.
F-Series, Super Duty and Maverick Hybrid gains highlight strong demand for Ford's higher-value vehicles.
Paid software subscriptions topped 1.7M, while Ford expects the supplier issue to stay within EBIT guidance.
Ford (F - Free Report) heads into its upcoming third-quarter earnings report with encouraging underlying trends in its core truck and SUV businesses, despite a decline in overall U.S. vehicle sales. Ford's third-quarter U.S. sales fell 6.6% year over year to 509,764 vehicles, primarily reflecting the planned phase-out of Escape and Corsair.
The strength of Ford's higher-value vehicle portfolio remains a key positive heading into earnings. F-Series sales increased 2.4% in September, while Super Duty production rose 4.4% to 110,275 units, marking its best quarterly performance in 19 years. Maverick Hybrid sales surged 59.6% to a record 27,793 units, and Bronco also recorded its strongest third-quarter sales.
Demand for large SUVs, including Explorer and Expedition, further supports the company's product mix and pricing position. Additionally, active paid software subscriptions surpassed 1.7 million through September, increasing more than 40% year over year and strengthening the potential for recurring, higher-margin revenues. Although a temporary supplier issue affected F-150 production late in September, management expects the financial impact to remain within its existing 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $10-$11 billion.
However, electric vehicle sales were the weak spot. According to Electrek, Ford’s U.S. EV sales plunged 80% year over year to 6,047 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, Mustang Mach-E sales fell 72.4% to 5,574 units, while F-150 Lightning sales tumbled 97% to just 289 units.
Competitive Context: GM & TM
General Motors (GM - Free Report) provides a useful comparison, as its third-quarter U.S. deliveries declined 5.5% to 670,974 vehicles, broadly reflecting the pressure on industry volumes. Nevertheless, GM's Silverado light-duty sales increased 13.3%, while Trax and Trailblazer posted gains of 16.3% and 51.1%, respectively. These results highlight that, much like Ford, GM continues to benefit from demand for selected trucks and affordable SUVs even as overall deliveries soften.
It also witnessed a steep pullback in EV demand. Chevrolet Equinox EV deliveries plunged 92.4% year over year to 1,905 units, Blazer EV sales declined to 1,261 units and Silverado EV deliveries fell 58% to 1,655 units. Cadillac LYRIQ sales dropped 50.5%, while GMC HUMMER EV and Sierra EV sales decreased 72.9% and 50.8%, respectively. GM noted that its overall third-quarter sales decline partly reflected a substantially smaller EV market.
The comparison becomes more nuanced when comparing Toyota (TM - Free Report) , which delivered 633,223 vehicles in the United States during the third quarter, up 0.6% year over year, with Toyota division sales rising 0.5% and Lexus sales increasing 1.6%.
Toyota's electrified vehicle sales, including hybrids, jumped 28.5% to 363,367 units and represented 57.4% of its total quarterly sales, underscoring the strength of its multi-path electrification strategy. Toyota also continues to benefit from a broad electrified lineup, with 32 electrified vehicle options available across the Toyota and Lexus brands.
The Zacks Rundown for Ford
Shares of F have gained 1.49% in a year against its industry’s 3.4% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ford is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 6.33X, lower than the industry’s average of 82.96X. It carries a Value Score of A.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 70.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for EPS for fiscal 2026 has been flat over the past 60 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Can Ford's Truck and SUV Strength Drive Q3 Earnings Growth?
Key Takeaways
Ford (F - Free Report) heads into its upcoming third-quarter earnings report with encouraging underlying trends in its core truck and SUV businesses, despite a decline in overall U.S. vehicle sales. Ford's third-quarter U.S. sales fell 6.6% year over year to 509,764 vehicles, primarily reflecting the planned phase-out of Escape and Corsair.
The strength of Ford's higher-value vehicle portfolio remains a key positive heading into earnings. F-Series sales increased 2.4% in September, while Super Duty production rose 4.4% to 110,275 units, marking its best quarterly performance in 19 years. Maverick Hybrid sales surged 59.6% to a record 27,793 units, and Bronco also recorded its strongest third-quarter sales.
Demand for large SUVs, including Explorer and Expedition, further supports the company's product mix and pricing position. Additionally, active paid software subscriptions surpassed 1.7 million through September, increasing more than 40% year over year and strengthening the potential for recurring, higher-margin revenues. Although a temporary supplier issue affected F-150 production late in September, management expects the financial impact to remain within its existing 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $10-$11 billion.
However, electric vehicle sales were the weak spot. According to Electrek, Ford’s U.S. EV sales plunged 80% year over year to 6,047 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, Mustang Mach-E sales fell 72.4% to 5,574 units, while F-150 Lightning sales tumbled 97% to just 289 units.
Competitive Context: GM & TM
General Motors (GM - Free Report) provides a useful comparison, as its third-quarter U.S. deliveries declined 5.5% to 670,974 vehicles, broadly reflecting the pressure on industry volumes. Nevertheless, GM's Silverado light-duty sales increased 13.3%, while Trax and Trailblazer posted gains of 16.3% and 51.1%, respectively. These results highlight that, much like Ford, GM continues to benefit from demand for selected trucks and affordable SUVs even as overall deliveries soften.
It also witnessed a steep pullback in EV demand. Chevrolet Equinox EV deliveries plunged 92.4% year over year to 1,905 units, Blazer EV sales declined to 1,261 units and Silverado EV deliveries fell 58% to 1,655 units. Cadillac LYRIQ sales dropped 50.5%, while GMC HUMMER EV and Sierra EV sales decreased 72.9% and 50.8%, respectively. GM noted that its overall third-quarter sales decline partly reflected a substantially smaller EV market.
The comparison becomes more nuanced when comparing Toyota (TM - Free Report) , which delivered 633,223 vehicles in the United States during the third quarter, up 0.6% year over year, with Toyota division sales rising 0.5% and Lexus sales increasing 1.6%.
Toyota's electrified vehicle sales, including hybrids, jumped 28.5% to 363,367 units and represented 57.4% of its total quarterly sales, underscoring the strength of its multi-path electrification strategy. Toyota also continues to benefit from a broad electrified lineup, with 32 electrified vehicle options available across the Toyota and Lexus brands.
The Zacks Rundown for Ford
Shares of F have gained 1.49% in a year against its industry’s 3.4% decline.
Ford is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 6.33X, lower than the industry’s average of 82.96X. It carries a Value Score of A.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 70.6%.
The consensus estimate for EPS for fiscal 2026 has been flat over the past 60 days.
F currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.